Why Tarcísio de Freitas is Leading the SP Race Right Now

What Happened

A new Quaest poll released on Tuesday shows current Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leading the race for re-election in São Paulo with 44% of voting intentions.

Fernando Haddad (PT) follows in second place with 24% in the stimulated poll, where interviewers present a formalized list of registered candidates to voters. The survey, registered under official code SP-01590/2026 with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), consulted 1,800 voters aged 16 and older between September 25 and 28. It carries a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level, offering a robust snapshot of the electorate in Brazil's political and economic powerhouse.

Important Context

The survey captures a streamlined field following recent legal adjustments and rulings by the Regional Electoral Court of São Paulo (TRE-SP). Notably, the candidacy of Policial Edjane (Agir) was rejected by the court, removing her name from the latest reporting rounds and slightly altering the distribution of minor voter segments.

Beyond headline voting intentions, the Quaest dataset highlights critical voter dynamics, including spontaneous voting scenarios, simulated second-round matchups, and individual candidate rejection indexes. Both frontrunners, Freitas and Haddad, currently register the highest overall levels of voters stating they "know them and would not vote for them," underlining a deeply polarized electorate as the campaign enters its final stretch.

Why It Matters

With the election rapidly approaching, voter conviction is solidifying across the state. According to the data, 78% of surveyed electors state their vote is now definitive—a notable jump from 72% recorded just days prior in mid-September surveys.

Only 22% of respondents indicate they might still change their minds before heading to the polls. This hardening of preferences leaves narrowing windows for trailing campaigns to shift momentum. Because São Paulo represents the largest electoral college in Brazil, the outcome directly influences national political leverage, economic policy direction, and the broader balance of power between federal and state administrations.

What's Next

As the campaign enters its final week, all eyes turn to the remaining debates and final media appearances. With 78% of voters locked into their choices, campaigns are shifting focus from persuasion to mobilization, ensuring their supporters actually turn out on election day to avoid last-minute surprises.