What's Happening with the Monsoon
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that favorable weather conditions are forming, indicating the withdrawal of this year's southwest monsoon will begin around September 19, starting from western Rajasthan.
While the retreat begins in the west, rainfall will not stop everywhere at once. Instead, showers will gradually taper off across the country over a four-to-five-week period, culminating in a complete withdrawal by mid-October. Typically, the monsoon starts its northward advance in late May and reaches peak coverage by July, making its orderly retreat a crucial transition phase for the subcontinent's climate.
The Official Withdrawal Criteria
The IMD relies on specific meteorological milestones before declaring the formal retreat of the monsoon:
- Timing: No withdrawal is considered before September 1, regardless of local dry spells.
- Dry Weather: Western Rajasthan must experience at least five consecutive days of completely dry weather.
- Anticyclone Setup: An anticyclone must form at a height of 1.5 kilometers above the ground near Pakistan and western Rajasthan, blocking rain-bearing winds.
- Humidity Drop: A sharp, noticeable decrease in atmospheric moisture levels across the region.
Why It Matters: Regional Impact and Deficits
Following the retreat from Rajasthan, the monsoon typically begins exiting Gujarat around September 20.
Kutch and parts of North Gujarat—including Banaskantha and Patan—will see the earliest exits. Saurashtra and Central Gujarat generally experience a dry-out by September 30, while South Gujarat remains the last region to clear, usually seeing a complete exit by the first week of October.
This year's season has experienced an overall national rainfall deficit of around 15 percent, posing challenges for kharif crop yields in rain-fed agricultural belts. In Gujarat, the state has recorded roughly 85 percent of its seasonal average. However, distribution remains heavily skewed: South Gujarat recorded a robust 112 percent of its average, while arid and semi-arid regions like Kutch and Devbhumi Dwarka faced notable rainfall deficits that required careful water management.
What's Next: Transition to Post-Monsoon Season
As the monsoon winds reverse and withdraw completely by mid-October, the region will transition into the post-monsoon season, often marked by clear skies, rising daytime temperatures, and increasing humidity known locally as the "October heat." Farmers will shift focus from kharif harvesting to preparing fields for rabi (winter) sowing, relying heavily on stored groundwater and reservoir levels heading into the dry months.
