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A new electoral survey released by Quaest shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a dead heat for a potential second-round runoff.
Commissioned by Globo, the poll captures a highly polarized race heading into the final stretch before the first round.
What the Numbers Show
Both candidates pulled 42% of the vote in the projected head-to-head matchup.
However, looking beneath the top-line numbers reveals significant movement across specific demographic and regional groups over the course of September:
- Regional Shifts: Flávio Bolsonaro expanded his footprint in the Southeast early in the month, but a late surge by Lula brought the region back to a technical tie (43% to 37%).
- Income and Education: Lula strengthened his base among lower-income voters earning up to two minimum wages, expanding his lead from 22 to 26 points. Conversely, Flávio gained ground among more educated voters.
- Gender and Religion: Lula maintained a 9-point advantage among women, while religious lines held firm, with Flávio leading among evangelicals and Lula leading among Catholics.
Campaign Strategies in Play
The shifting numbers reflect intense campaigning on both sides.
Lula balanced official government duties with campaign stops, recently announcing an adjustment to the Bolsa Família welfare program and a controversial executive order restricting online betting platforms. He also used his UN General Assembly address to spotlight national sovereignty.
Flávio Bolsonaro focused his agenda on security, announcing Brazil’s entry into the "Shield of the Americas"—an initiative promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump to combat Latin American organized crime. Both campaigns have increasingly capitalized on the ongoing "Master Case" fallout, trading jabs over the candidate's ties to banking figures and political insiders.
What's Next
The Quaest survey interviewed 2,004 respondents aged 16 and older between September 24 and 27. It carries a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level, registered under BR-06520/2026.
With both candidates statistically tied across almost all core groups, the final weeks of campaigning will heavily depend on how each candidate mobilizes undecided and independent voters.
