Political momentum is shifting rapidly in Germany's most populous state. A fresh survey reveals a dramatic tightening of the political landscape in North Rhine-Westphalia, posing fresh challenges for Minister President Hendrik Wüst ahead of the upcoming state election.
What Happened in the Latest Poll
According to a recent Forsa survey conducted between September 7 and 18 among 1,030 respondents, the ruling CDU has seen its comfortable lead over the AfD melt away.
If a state election were held immediately, the CDU led by Hendrik Wüst would drop to 29%, down from 32% in April. Meanwhile, the AfD climbed two points to 22%. This compresses the gap between the two parties from twelve percentage points down to just seven.
For context, the CDU enjoyed a commanding 22-point advantage as recently as July 2025, when they polled at 38% compared to the AfD's 16%. Elsewhere in the state survey, the Greens rose to 18%, the Left party gained two points to reach 8%, while the SPD held steady at 14% and the FDP languished at 3%.
A Historic Federal Shift in NRW
The real shocker, however, came from the federal voting intention data within the same poll. For the first time ever in a Forsa survey for North Rhine-Westphalia, the AfD has overtaken the CDU on a federal level within the state.
The AfD surged to a record-high 24% in NRW for federal preferences, edging past the Christdemokraten. The CDU plummeted four points to a dismal 22%—marking the lowest federal figure Forsa has ever recorded for the party in the state, eclipsing even their previous low from December 2021.
What This Means for Hendrik Wüst
Currently, Minister President Hendrik Wüst governs NRW through a coalition between the CDU and the Greens. However, the broader political climate is increasingly turbulent. Following recent electoral setbacks in eastern Germany and mounting public dissatisfaction linked to federal leadership under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, regional dynamics are clearly feeling the shockwaves.
With the state parliamentary election looming in April, political strategists in Düsseldorf are under immense pressure to reverse these trends before voter sentiment hardens further.
