What the New 2026 Presidential Poll Means for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

What Happened

The Datafolha institute has released a fresh round of presidential polling data, commissioned jointly by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. This marks the first major voter survey following a historic session by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) involving high-profile judicial developments that have reshaped the national political conversation.

The fieldwork took place between September 15 and 17, capturing responses from 2,002 eligible voters aged 16 and older across the country. The survey holds a margin of error of two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level, and is registered under the official electoral identifier BR-04029/2026.

Background and Previous Numbers

Before this update, the political landscape showed a tightly contested race. In the prior survey released on September 11, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) led the first round with 39% of voter intentions, closely followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 35%. Third-party candidates, such as Augusto Cury (Avante), trailed significantly, capturing roughly 6% of the electorate and highlighting a consolidation around the two major ideological blocks.

Meanwhile, hypothetical second-round matchups pointed to a razor-thin statistical tie. Lula registered 46% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 44%, underlining a deeply polarized electorate as campaign strategies intensify across both camps.

Why It Matters

This latest survey serves as a critical thermometer for the Brazilian electorate amid rising institutional friction. Key stakeholders—including party strategists, economic investors, and civil society leaders—are closely watching to see how recent judicial rulings affect voter alignment.

With ongoing debates surrounding judicial independence, economic performance, and diplomatic pressures, public sentiment is susceptible to rapid shifts. The new Datafolha data provides tangible metrics on whether recent headlines have galvanized core bases or swayed undecided voters who will ultimately decide the outcome.

What's Next

As the campaign progresses, upcoming televised debates and the formal distribution of free broadcast advertising time (horário eleitoral gratuito) will test the durability of these figures. Analysts will monitor subsequent polls to determine if the post-STF momentum translates into lasting shifts or if the race remains locked in a dead heat as election day approaches.