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The electoral landscape is shifting rapidly as the race enters a critical phase. A freshly released Datafolha survey provides a precise snapshot of voter intentions, highlighting tightening margins and critical movements in public support as election day approaches.
What Happened
According to the new survey data, Lula leads the first-turn preferences with 40% of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro follows closely with 36%.
This four-point gap places the frontrunners near the edge of the survey's margin of error, which stands at two percentage points. Compared to tracking from the previous week—where Lula registered 39% and Bolsonaro held 36%—the numbers reflect a remarkably competitive electorate. Meanwhile, simulated second-turn scenarios point to an even tighter contest, showing 47% for Lula against 45% for Bolsonaro.
Why It Matters
Understanding voter conviction is just as essential as tracking raw topline percentages. The Datafolha data reveals that 80% of surveyed voters consider their presidential choice entirely locked in, leaving a volatile 20% open to persuasion or last-minute shifts.
Voter loyalty shows high intensity across the major camps:
- Lula supporters: 87% report being fully decided on their choice.
- Flávio Bolsonaro supporters: 85% report being fully decided.
With four out of five voters firmly committed, the remaining uncommitted fifth will dictate the ultimate outcome of both the first and second turns. Campaigns are now fiercely targeting this persuadable demographic with localized messaging and digital ad blitzes.
Important Context
Conducted between September 22 and 23, the poll sampled 2,002 individuals aged 16 and older across the country. The research holds a 95% confidence level and is officially registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the identifier BR-00304/2026.
What's Next
As campaigns push into their final stretch, these metrics serve as the primary baseline for political analysts evaluating momentum. Campaign strategists are adjusting their ground operations and television broadcast messaging to peel away voters from the 20% undecided pool, making the upcoming televised debates and final rallies critical turning points for the race.
